Jakarta (doh!!! it’s the porn that did it!)

The immoral people of Padang walking through the rubble of their city.

Photo: believeinstyle

Ah, ummm, ok, I think someone’s resignation should be on someone’s desk very early this morning.

No morons in the government please!

ENOUGH ALREADY!

from the BBC 11.28.09

Indonesia minister says immorality causes disasters

“A government minister has blamed Indonesia’s recent string of natural disasters on people’s immorality.

Communication and Information Minister Tifatul Sembiring said that there were many television programmes that destroyed morals.

Therefore, the minister said, natural disasters would continue to occur.

His comments came as he addressed a prayer meeting on Friday in Padang, Sumatra, which was hit by a powerful earthquake in late September.

He also hit out at rising decadence – proven, he said, by the availability of Indonesia-made pornographic DVDs in local markets – and called for tougher laws.

According to the Jakarta Globe, his comments sparked an angry reaction on the internet, particularly among those who followed him on social networking site Twitter.

Why focus on public immorality when there was so much within the government, one respondent reportedly asked.

More than 1,000 people died in the Padang earthquake, which toppled hundreds of buildings in and around the city.

Padang lies to the south of Aceh province, which was devastated in the December 2004 Asian tsunami.

Indonesia lies across a series of geological fault-lines and is prone to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.”

AP wire via GMA News TV

Twitters irked by Indonesia exec who linked disasters to immorality

JAKARTA, Indonesia — “A government minister drew sharp criticism from earthquake victims Saturday and alienated some of his Twitter followers by blaming natural disasters in Indonesia on immorality.

Communication and Information Minister Tifatul Sembiring linked disasters to declining public morals when he addressed a prayer meeting in the city of Padang to mark a Muslim holiday on Friday.

“Television broadcasts that destroy morals are plentiful in this country and therefore disasters will continue to occur,” national news agency Antara quoted Sembiring as saying in the Bahasa Indonesia language.

He also referred to Indonesian-made hard-core sex DVDs available in street markets as an example of growing public decadence and called for tougher laws against pornography.

Indonesia straddles a series of fault lines that make the vast island nation prone to volcanic and seismic activity. A giant quake off the country on Dec. 26, 2004, triggered the Indian Ocean tsunami that killed 230,000 people, half of them in Indonesia’s Aceh.

A magnitude 7.6 temblor on Sept. 30 killed more than 1,000 on western Sumatra.

News of what Sembiring, a former leader of the Islamic-based Prosperous Justice Party, said provoked criticism Saturday from disaster victims.

Kikie Marzuki, a Muslim Aceh resident who lost 10 relatives in the tsunami, said victims were not to blame.

“I prefer to believe that natural disasters occur because of the destructive force of nature that cannot be avoided by humans,” he said.

Sembiring’s remarks also brought swift rebuke from some of his followers on the social interaction network Twitter.

One tweeter, who identified himself as Ari Margiono, told Sembiring his words inferred that residents of Aceh and Padang were more decadent than other Indonesians.

Sembiring did not answer his telephone Saturday, but he told the Jakarta Globe newspaper, “Disasters provide a momentum for repentance.”

Not everyone disagreed with him, and his speech in Padang won the backing of an influential board of Muslim clerics, the Indonesian Ullema Council.

“Based on the religious view, a disaster could be seen as a punishment for people’s sins, and could also as a reminder to us of our mistakes,” prominent council member Ma’ruf Amin said.”  – AP

Jakarta (first the good news…)

Banggai Crow

MSU expert says endangered Indonesia crow survives

Associated Press

October 17, 2009

EAST LANSING, Mich. -

A Michigan State University researcher says a crow species long feared extinct still survives on a remote mountainous island in Indonesia.

Naturalists say that paves the way for efforts to protect the Banggai crow, previously known to scientists from a pair of century-old specimens.

“The Banggai crow was believed by many to be extinct until Indonesian biologists finally secured two new specimens on Peleng Island in 2007,” Michigan State spokesman Mark Fellows said in a report on the school’s Web site.

Fellows said zoology assistant professor Pamela Rasmussen was able to confirm the specimens from a century apart were from the same species.

The 1900 specimens are classified as Corvus unicolor and are in the American Museum of Natural History in New York. The 2007 specimens are cataloged at the Museum Zoologicum Bogoriense in Java, Indonesia.

Members of the Celebes Bird Club secured the new specimens, and efforts to establish their identity were led by University of Indonesia professor Mochamad Indrawan and associate Yunus Masala.

There had been speculation the new specimens were a subspecies of the more common slender-billed crow Corvus enca, also found on the island.

Rasmussen said her analysis “shows that all four unicolor specimens are very similar to each other and distinctly different from enca specimens.”

The two sets of specimens differ in eye color from Corvus enca, helping to confirm that the Banggai crow is a separate species, she said in a statement.

A photo of the Banggai crow appears this month in the Handbook of the Birds of the World.

“It was very exciting to see photos of such a rare species about which almost nothing is known,” Chief Editor Josep del Hoyo said in a statement.

then the bad news…

Poaching is major threat in Indonesia

Environmental groups struggle to hunt hunters

Boston Globe

Nearly all the 230 animals on Indonesia’s endangered species list can be bought in Jakarta.

JAKARTA, Indonesia – The monkey, shackled to an iron stake, paced a narrow strip of dirt filled with its own excrement. As people laughed and pointed, the creature bared its teeth and lunged at the end of its line.

“He gets angry,’’ said a trader at the teeming animal market here. “Like a little person.’’

Irma Hermawati gets angry too. The 31-year-old Javanese native is an investigator for the nonprofit group ProFauna, which lobbies on behalf of what she believes is Indonesia’s most precious resource: its indigenous wildlife.

She spends her days plotting sting operations against well-organized poaching rings that extend across Indonesia.

Wearing a traditional veil over her face, she also ventures undercover into Jakarta’s riotous animal markets.

Hermawati is hunting the animal hunters.

Poaching has joined rampant logging and jungle deforestation as one of this developing nation’s most pressing environmental problems. Indonesia has 230 animals on its endangered species list, and virtually every one of them can be bought here in the capital city.

“It’s alarming to see that Indonesia’s list of protected species is getting longer, not shorter,’’ she said.

Each year, hundreds of thousands of animals are trapped and carted from the forest to supply an underground market that activists say reaps between $10 million and $20 million annually.

Although laws prohibit such poaching and sales, enforcement is weak and in many places nonexistent. Poachers often employ crude trapping techniques that leave animals with wounds and infections that go untreated.

Cramped in crates, many animals die on the long, secretive journey to market. Some are given tranquilizers or drugs before being smuggled out of the country, where they are resold for 10 times their local value.

Government officials admit they are fighting a losing battle. With Indonesia having little money for public education campaigns and only 12,000 rangers to cover nearly 50 million acres of dense forest, poachers often operate with impunity.

“It comes down to money. There is a market for these animals that draws organized crime syndicates,’’ said Tonny Soehartono, the former director of biodiversity conservation with the Forestry Ministry.

Hermawati first witnessed the fate of Indonesia’s wildlife on mountain hikes in East Java, when she saw exotic birds trapped in tiny cages, waiting to be scooped up by poachers.

“It was cruel,’’ she said, “and I wanted to find out how to stop it.’’

Jakarta (The Gray Wave of the Great Transformation)

jakarta_jammed

Photo: The Jakarta Globe (“Cities are [supposed to be] developed for people, not for cars. The city of Jakarta provides only for cars and motorcycles.” –Milatia Kusuma Mu’min, Indonesian country director of the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.)

The Gray Wave of the Great Transformation could be used to describe Jakarta. However this is the title of a lecture I will be attending next week here at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.

The lecture will be presented by Marc Imhoff, Ph.D., Earth Scientist, NASA’s Goddard Research Center.

Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecture: Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

As the announcement states:

“Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth’s natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as “the great transformation”. Urbanization or the ‘gray wave’ of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.”

One can sniff these things out using a particular kind of technology but what one really needs is a social transformation in the way people think. Sometimes it takes a certain kind of political will which come from the bottom up and not the top down.

For example The Jakarta Globe has just run a five part series on the Jakarta ‘environment’.  Here are three below…

11.3.2008

Jakarta’s Lack of Open Spaces Could End Up Choking City

The growing number of indoor futsal courts and fitness centers inside Jakarta’s gleaming malls may be a sign of the sprawling Indonesian capital’s booming prosperity, but in reality it reflects the alarming lack of open spaces for residents to do outdoor activities.

Nirwono Joga, an urban planning expert from Trisakti University, told the Jakarta Globe that the city was facing an impending “ecological suicide.”

He said Jakarta had only managed to preserve 9.79 percent of its land as green open spaces, far less than the 30 percent allocation as outlined in the 2007 spatial planning law, which was adapted from the recommendations of the UN’s 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The 30 percent designation had aimed for 20 percent of the green areas to be public, such as parks and green belts, while the remaining 10 percent was to be covered by individual gardens in private homes and office spaces.

The worrying trend, critics have said, would soon deprive Jakarta’s residents of the fresh air and clean water that should be available if there were enough green open spaces and water catchment areas to function as an environmental buffer.

“In the long run, there will be more citizens with respiratory diseases as there are no green areas that can filter the pollution,” Nirwono said, adding that the lack of open ground needed to absorb rain would also lead to water shortages during the dry season and exacerbate problems with flooding during the rainy season.”

11.4.2009

Greening Jakarta’s Concrete Jungle

“Reusable shopping bags may be all the rage with trendy Jakartans these days, but experts say this small measure doesn’t come close to saving the capital from an impending ecological disaster. A major shift to “green buildings” is also needed.

Nirwono Joga, an urban planning expert from Trisakti University’s civil engineering department, said that the city’s high-rises — with their massive energy and water consumption — contributed significantly to the environmental problems found here.

“Jakarta is headed toward ecological suicide if nothing is done,” he said.”

11.5.2009

Residents, City Pay For Jakarta’s Need for Land

“Tiresome court hearings and regular visits to government offices have become an unwanted part of Ayu Sinaga’s life. The 28-year-old employee of a private company has had to help her family deal with a dispute over their land, a 3,800-square-meter plot in Pondok Kopi, East Jakarta.

The land, now estimated to be worth Rp 4.4 billion ($462,000), had been bought by her late father in 1974.

Despite holding all the title deeds and having faithfully paid land taxes every year, other claimants began to surface when the government needed to purchase the land to construct the East Flood Canal.

Three years have now passed but the court case concerning the dispute over the land’s ownership remains unsettled. “My family doesn’t mind if the land is not purchased, but if the administration really needs it, then we only want our rights,” Ayu said.

City’s Insatiable Appetite

With skyscrapers, shopping malls, entertainment centers, markets and roads sprouting up at an unbelievable pace over the past quarter century, the Indonesian capital is incessantly gobbling up land, leading to problems and disputes over land ownership, prices and compensation.

Yet the massive development of recent years has left the city yearning for more. With 665 square kilometers already covered by a concrete jungle, Jakarta continues to harbor big dreams of development.”

There has been much hand wringing and turmoil in Jakarta as far as this very persistent narrative goes. Soon there will be more articles on flooding. This is as predictable as, well, as the flooding.

So, Jakarta. SNIFF this!

It smell likes fresh air and green stuff. You remember what that is right?

View-of-the-botanical-gar-001

View of the botanical gardens in Curitiba, Brazil. The city is a model for modern urbanisation. Photograph: Carlos Cazalis/Corbis

Common sense and the city: Jaime Lerner, Brazil’s green revolutionary

Mike Power Thursday 5 November 2009 12.41 GMT guardian.co.uk

The ex-mayor of Curitiba used massive creativity and tiny budgets to create the world’s greenest city

There are times in life – admittedly very few indeed – when you really wish Boris Johnson was in the same room as you. Last night was one of them as the revolutionary Brazilian ex-mayor, Jaime Lerner, spoke at London’s British Film Institute as part of its Of Dreams and Cities season.

“You have to keep things simple, and just start working … You have a lot of complexity-sellers in this life. We should beat them, beat them with a slipper,” said the 70-year-old former mayor of Curitiba, the world’s most environmentally friendly city. He has the look of an ex-boxer and a military bearing, softened by a ready and guttural laugh. Lerner was there to see A Convenient Truth, an inspiring film by Giovanni Baz del Bello showing how Lerner and successive mayors have over the past 40 years made Curitiba, a city of 3 million in southern Brazil, one of the world’s most livable urban spaces – using only massive creativity and tiny budgets.

“You get creative when you take a zero from your budget,” says Lerner. “But sustainability starts when you take two zeros from your budget. Many other mayors tell me their budget is small. For many things, we had no budget.”

His first major coup was pedestrianising the main central shopping street in 1972 – in a weekend.

“We started one Friday night, and finished on Monday morning. If we’d had to stop and do things regularly, I wouldn’t have made it, and I could have been fired. So we took the risk. By the Monday night, business was so good, the head of the local businessmen came to me and he gave me a petition and said: ‘We want the whole street pedestrianised.’”

Lerner heard about a possible protest by drivers who planned to drive through the newly pedestrianised thoroughfare. So, he enlisted hundreds of children, armed them with paintbrushes and paper, and set them to play in the street. The protest never materialised.

Using three-section bendy buses in dedicated bus lanes, the city’s transport system carries passenger numbers comparable to an underground – 2 million a day – but at a cost of $1m per kilometre rather than $100m. Fares are flat, and the city was encouraged to grow along the bus routes, so any Curitiba resident is never more than 400m from a bus stop. Only the cars get stuck in traffic jams.

Soon, Lerner hopes to launch the Dock-Dock, a 60cm-wide and 130cm-long car – the smallest in the world. “I can fit inside it,” he says. “It will run at less than 25kmh with a range of 50km. But you won’t own it.” It will act as publicly owned feeder vehicles for public transport. Lernert says he’ll test drive it in Rio next week.

Recycling in Curitiba is perhaps the most radical reform of all. In 1989, residents in a nearby favela were dumping their trash in surrounding rivers and fields, as there were no collections from their narrow streets. Lerner arranged for a truck to visit the favela at fixed times each week, and residents’ rubbish was exchanged for bus tickets, football tickets and shows. Soon, the locals were cleaning the rivers and fields of old rubbish to sell. Schoolchildren were given new plastic toys for old bottles and bags in a scheme called “Garbage that’s not garbage”.

Separation of organic and non-organic waste improved efficiencies further. Local homeless people and alcoholics were employed at the recycling plant, where they also retrained on computers they rescued from the city’s bins. Curitiba’s fishermen were paid to fish for rubbish.

Floodplains surrounding the city were bought up and converted to parks with boating lakes acting as overspill areas. This solution, far cheaper and more effective than culvetting rivers with concrete, increased the green space available for residents from 0.5 square metres each in the 1960s to over 50 square metres per resident today.

Housing was tackled in a similarly simple, revolutionary way. Land next to the electricity company’s lot was converted into housing estates, and residents were encouraged to redesign their interiors, so they felt more pride and ownership over their properties.

Lerners’ reforms have been widely popular and they appear to have improved the peoples’ lot. GDP per capita in Curitiba is 60% higher than the average in Brazil. “Those that were most against us transformed into our greatest supporters – they just needed to see the results. Now they are proud of their city.”

There are some important lessons to learn here. I understand that the Jakarta ‘planners’ will be meeting next week.

Be careful to watch what they say.

Jakarta (pirates are we… in the post-civil society)

climate-change-terroists

Photo via Pat Dollard

On subject of ‘pirates’…

ememy of all

From MIT Press:

The Enemy of All: Piracy and the Law of Nations

by Daniel Heller-Roazen

“The pirate is the original enemy of humankind. As Cicero famously remarked, there are certain enemies with whom one may negotiate and with whom, circumstances permitting, one may establish a truce. But there is also an enemy with whom treaties are in vain and war remains incessant. This is the pirate, considered by ancient jurists to be “the enemy of all.”

In this book, Daniel Heller-Roazen reconstructs the shifting place of the pirate in legal and political thought from the ancient to the medieval, modern, and contemporary periods, presenting the philosophical genealogy of a remarkable antagonist. Today, Heller-Roazen argues, the pirate furnishes the key to the contemporary paradigm of the universal foe. This is a legal and political person of exception, neither criminal nor enemy, who inhabits an extra-territorial region. Against such a foe, states may wage extraordinary battles, policing politics and justifying military measures in the name of welfare and security.

Heller-Roazen defines piracy by the conjunction of four conditions: a region beyond territorial jurisdiction; agents who may not be identified with an established state; the collapse of the distinction between criminal and political categories; and the transformation of the concept of war. The paradigm of piracy remains in force today. Whenever we hear of regions outside the rule of law in which acts of “indiscriminate aggression” have been committed “against humanity,” we must begin to recognize that these are acts of piracy. Often considered part of the distant past, the enemy of all is closer to us today than we may think. Indeed, he may never have been closer.”

from treehugger

Global Warming Could Create a Legion of ‘Climate Terrorists’
by Brian Merchant, Brooklyn, New York on 10.28.09
Business & Politics

Scientists predict that climate change will exacerbate many of the world’s continuing troubles–food shortages, poverty, lack of water, spread of infectious diseases, and so on. And many have already suggested that strained resources and migration caused by global warming could eventually lead to wars; maybe even a world war. But few have considered this national security concern: climate change could usher in a brand new generation of terrorists.

One man who has made such a consideration is Dr. Greg Austin. The provocative piece he wrote for New Europe called Climate Terrorists: They Will Come is especially foreboding. Austin notes that 40% of the world lives in tropical areas, where even incremental rises in temperatures can have disastrous effects.

Blueprint for Climate Terror

Developing nations comprise the vast majority of these tropical states, many of which have exploding populations, a growing youth bulge, and increasing problems with hunger and health. And while there was once optimism for these nations to develop rapidly, hopes are beginning to fade. From New Europe:

There has been however a hitherto unshakable faith among many in the idea of “progress’, especially the belief that economic growth and technological advance would ultimately reduce poverty and provide jobs for most of the expected population growth.

Climate change is a threat to this basic hope for progress.

The Rise of Climate Terrorism

Austin notes that there are already parts of the world where people live with temperatures as high as 48 Degrees Celsius (118 Fahrenheit!), such as the Sudan. If climate change causes the temperature to rise even a fraction of a degree, it could make such regions uninhabitable–forcing large groups of people to abandon their homes. This displacement, along with a lack of legal means to relocate, and a need to survive, could help foster piracy and terrorism. Austin explains:

About 40 per cent of the world’s population lives in tropical zones. The eruption of piracy and terrorism in tropical zones, places like Somalia and Indonesia, cannot be separated from emerging climate stress. The warming of concern for these zones is not the distant future but the recent past and immediate future. With more global warming, human communities in marginal areas like these will be forced to migrate, first in small numbers and then en masse.

Then, the strain on such communities, and resulting widespread desperation could spur a rise of ‘climate terrorism’.

It’s certainly a provocative speculation, and not too far-fetched. And it’s further reason that slowing climate change is in the best interest of national security policy–the concept of the ‘climate terrorist’ may be ill-defined, but it highlights the social turmoil that is certain to occur in areas where climate change causes resource scarcity and mass migration.”

Jakarta (if a tree falls in the forest…? vroom, vroom…)

deforestation2_255270s

This is Sumatra.

photo: DIMAS ARDIAN/GETTY from The Independent

Illegal logging responsible for loss of 10 million hectares in Indonesia

By Kathy Marks, Asia-Pacific Correspondent

Monday, 26 October 2009 The Independent

“Lush tropical rainforest once covered almost all of Indonesia’s 17,000 islands between the Indian and Pacific oceans. And just half a century ago, 80 per cent remained. But since then, rampant logging and burning has destroyed nearly half that cover, and made the country the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouses gases after the US and China.

Indonesia still has one-tenth of the world’s remaining rainforests, a treasure trove of rare plant and animal species, including critically endangered tigers, elephants and orang-utans. However, it is destroying its forests faster than any other country, according to the Guinness Book of Records, with an average two million hectares disappearing every year, double the annual loss in the 1980s.

It is that frenzied rate of deforestation that has propelled Indonesia, home to 237 million people, into its top-three spot in the global league table of climate change villains. According to a government report released last month, the destruction of forests and carbon-rich peatlands accounts for 80 per cent of the 2.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide emitted in the country annually.

The situation is partly a legacy of the 32-year rule of the dictator Suharto, during which Indonesia’s forests were regarded purely as a source of revenue to be exploited for economic gain. Suharto, who stepped down in 1998, handed out logging concessions covering more than half the total forest area, many of them to his relatives and political allies.

Although the current Indonesian government, under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is committed to reducing deforestation and CO2 emissions, not much has changed on the ground. Poor land management is compounded by lawlessness and corruption, and illegal logging is widespread. According to one official estimate, the latter is responsible for the loss of 10 million hectares of forest.

Legal logging, too, is conducted at unsustainable levels, thanks to soaring demand from a rapidly expanding pulp and paper industry, in a country struggling with high levels of poverty.

The recent government report forecast that carbon emissions, which have risen from 1.6 billion tons in 1990, will increase to 3.6 billion by 2030, a leap of 57 per cent from today’s level. The main reason is logging and clearing of forests for agriculture and industrial plantations, including oil palms. The government granted permission last year for two million hectares of peatland to be cleared for oil palms.

The rapid spread of oil palm plantations, particularly on Sumatra and Borneo islands, is threatening the orang-utan’s forest habitat and hastening its extinction, according to conservationists.

Clearing land releases into the atmosphere the carbon stored in trees and below ground, either during burning or when the timber decomposes. Forest fires – regarded as a cheap and easy way of clearing forest – are deliberately lit by farmers as well as timber and oil palm plantation owners, and occur regularly on Sumatra and Borneo during the dry season.

Indonesia supports the UN’s Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) initiative, welcoming the idea of being paid to conserve its forests. However, some observers question whether the carbon credits it would receive will be priced high enough to make the scheme worthwhile.

At present, Indonesia accounts for 8 per cent of global carbon emissions, although the archipelago represents barely 1 per cent of the world’s landmass. It still has the third largest tracts of tropical rainforest, after Brazil and the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite losing one-quarter of its forest cover between 1990 and 2005.”

And the vroom, vroom part…

from Bloomberg.com 10.26.09

Honda to Increase Motorcycle Capacity in Indonesia, Nikkei Says

By Fergus Maguire

“Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — Honda Motor Co. plans to spend more than 10 billion yen to increase its annual production capacity for motorcycles and scooters in Indonesia by 20 percent to 3.6 million units, Nikkei English News said, without citing anyone.

The Japanese automaker’s joint venture with P.T. Astra International will build a facility with annual output capacity of 600,000 units at one of its three existing plants, the report said. The company aims to begin operations at the new facility in 2011, the report said. Last Updated: October 25, 2009 17:42 EDT”

Yes, it has been quite a weekend of blogging…

Jakarta (radio programming NOTE!)

350

more here:

Published on Friday, October 9, 2009 by Inter Press Service

Four Degrees of Devastation

Jakarta (the diamond in the ring of fire)

Perwokerto26_021507

Photo: Gunung Slamet, Perwokerto

Beautiful and occasionally deadly.  Indonesia is truly the diamond in the ring of fire.

From: The Los Angeles Times 10.5.2009

Indonesia will face a far more devastating earthquake, seismologists warn

‘We don’t think this was the big one,’ says a scientist in the region.

Reporting from Padang, Indonesia – Expect a far more powerful earthquake than last week’s magnitude 7.6 temblor to hit Indonesia’s devastated Padang area in the next few decades.

That’s the word from a team of leading seismologists, who said the worst is yet to come, although they cautioned that predicting the timing of earthquakes is an inexact science at best.

After a three-day review of seismic evidence using global-positioning equipment, scientists with the Earth Observatory of Singapore, or EOS, found that the earthquake that hit the Indonesian city of Padang did little to relieve the stored tension at the juncture of two tectonic plates.

The EOS team believes that the eventual energy release could result in an earthquake close to the scale of the magnitude 9 monster that triggered the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, killing more than 200,000 in a dozen countries.

“We don’t think this was the big one,” said Paramesh Banerjee, technical director of EOS, a $700-million government-funded institute for the study of tsunamis, volcanoes, earthquakes and climate. “It can happen any time — now, in 20 years or more.”

On Monday, rescue workers ended their search for life beneath the rubble, shifting their focus instead to helping survivors in the area around Padang, a port city of 900,000 on Sumatra island. But their efforts were hampered by torrential rain.

The government’s official death toll stood at 603, although the United Nations said 1,100 people died and other disaster specialists said the number will probably climb to several thousand after more corpses are unearthed.

Gagah Prakoso, a spokesman for the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency, told reporters that chances of anyone surviving this long without food and water were slim, prompting the decision to concentrate on finding bodies and cleaning up the rubble.

Indonesia faces a huge rebuilding task. More than 88,000 houses and 285 schools were destroyed in 10 districts, according to the U.N. and Indonesia’s Disaster Management Agency, with an additional 100,000 public buildings and 20 miles of road damaged.

Seismologists said the earthquake occurred in the collision zone where the Indo-Australian Plate dives beneath the Sunda Plate, which is below Padang and the Indonesian province of Aceh, which was battered by the 2004 earthquake and tsunami.

“When one plate goes beneath another it’s called ’subduction,’ ” Banerjee said. “But it doesn’t go smoothly. It gets stuck and then it slips. This slip is an earthquake.”

According to Richard Briggs of the U.S. Geological Survey, these plates converge, colliding at a few inches a year, with the stress stored for decades or centuries before being released suddenly as large, damaging earthquakes. The magnitude of the earthquake depends on the size of the fault and how much the fault slips during a sudden rupture.

In the case of the Sunda megathrust fault, which parallels the west coast of Sumatra, the 850-mile northern portion slipped as much as 100 feet in 2004, triggering the tsunami. In 2005, a 210-mile portion directly to the south slipped more than 40 feet during the magnitude 8.7 earthquake that devastated the Nias, Banyak and Simeulue islands.

The portion of the fault next in line, offshore Padang, has yet to slip despite the most recent quake, according to the EOS.

The idea that a mammoth earthquake is coming to Padang is nothing new to paleoseismologist and EOS director Kerry Sieh, who has been studying the regions’ tectonics for the last 18 years. Sieh’s team has identified the sequence of Padang-area earthquakes using GPS data, historical records and the growth patterns of coral based on its uranium content.

Since the December 2004 tsunami, the scientists have produced papers and statements and spoken to local officials about the risk. With partial financing from the California Institute of Technology, where he had been a professor, Sieh printed posters in English and Indonesian and took them to outlying islands to discuss with village elders and fishermen what he believed was an inevitable earthquake and subsequent tsunami. “They were interested, but we weren’t taken seriously,” he said.

The city of Padang has tried to foster earthquake and tsunami preparedness by providing public service announcements, seminars and evacuation routes. Still, Wednesday’s quake brought a high toll in lives and buildings — a fact exacerbated by the area’s relative poverty and questionable construction standards.

Vice Gov. H. Marlis Rahman acknowledged that the area needs to prepare for the next earthquake. But experts warn that apathy and human nature often take their course.

“The problem is we’re too busy with laundry, taking kids to school, catching fish to feed your family to worry about low-probability, low-risk hazards,” Sieh said. But, he added, the risk of not preparing for the inevitable is great.

“The people in charge of Padang have had lots of things going on,” he said, “but they’ve got a lot more now.”

McDermid is a special correspondent.

How to help in Indonesia, Samoa, and Tonga

A list of some of the relief organizations working in Indonesia, Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga.

By International Editor CSM | 10.05.09

Below is a list of some of the organizations working to help quake victims in Indonesia and tsunami victims in the Pacific Island nations of Samoa, American Samoa, and Tonga. This list was produced by Monitor researchers Leigh Montgomery and Elizabeth Ryan. The following charities are either providing direct assistance or are fund-raising for the relief efforts.

Adventist Development and Relief Agency (ADRA)

12501 Old Columbia Pike, Silver Spring, MD 20904

Tel: (800) 424-2372

American Red Cross

2025 E Street, NW

Washington DC, 20006

Tel: (800) 220-4095

Mail Donations to: P.O. box 4002018, Des Moines, IA, 50340

Americares

88 Hamilton Avenue, Stamford, CT 06902

Tel: (800) 486-4357

Fax: (203)327-5200

For the donation form for the current disaster in South Pacific/Southeast Asia click here.

CARE

151 Ellis Street, NE, Atlanta GA 30303

Tel: (800)521-2273

Mail Donations to: P.O. Box 1871, Merrifield, VA 22116

Church World Service

28606 Phillips Street, P.O. Box 968, Elkhart, IN 46515

Tel: (800)297-1516

Direct Relief International

27 South La Patera Lane, Santa Barbara, CA 93117

Tel: (805)964-4767

Fax: (805)681-4838

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

NY Delegation to the United Nations

International Federation

800 Second Federation, Suite 355, 3rd floor, New York, NY 10017, USA

Tel: +1(212)338-0161

Mercy Corps

3015 Southwest First Avenue, Portland, OR 97201

Tel: (800)292-3355

Fax: (503)796-6844

Mail donations to: Department W, P.O. Box 2669, Portland, OR 97208

Oxfam America

226 Causeway Street, 5th Floor, Boston MA 02114

Tel: (800)776-9326

Fax: (617)728-2594

Save The Children

54 Wilton Road, Westport, CT 06880

Tel: (800)544-4470

World Vision

34834 Weyerhaeuser Way S., Federal Way, WA 98001

Tel: (800)426-5753

Fax: (253)815-3174

Mail donations to: P.O. Box 9716, Federal Way, WA 98063

Please be specific about your donation.  Be careful of fraud.